Fantasy Football Wide Receivers 2011
by John Clifton
Fantasy football wide receivers don't get injured nearly as often as running backs, but they face their own set of challenges. In most cases, a wide receiver is only as good as his quarterback, so you must always take into account who the passer is when rating a fantasy receiver. Look what happened to Larry Fitzgerald last year in the absence of Kurt Warner--good, but not great. I want to list my favorite picks this year, the WRs to avoid, along with some sleepers and keepers.
Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Draft 2011
Andre
Johnson, Houston Texans - This one should go without saying. Andre
Johnson is the best fantasy football receiver going right now. He
single-handedly saved a lot of playoff runs last year with his
performance against the Ravens in Week 14 last year. The Texans' passing
game should be as good as ever this year. If you have no other
can't-miss options where you're drafting and your scoring system favors
receivers, you can do a lot worse than drafting Andre Johnson.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - Calvin Johnson is a riskier
selection, because he's gotten injured a lot these last two years. For
that matter, so has his quarterback, Matthew Stafford. But if ever the
two of them get on the same field at the same time for a lengthy period
of time, look out. After years of futility, this may finally be the
Detroit Lions year (at least more than most others recently). Don't pull
the trigger on Megatron too high, but if he's there in the middle of the
third or later, think about it.
Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - Vincent Jackson might slide in the
draft due to last year's holdout and injuries when he returned. I've
seen Vincent Jackson going relatively late in early drafts and mock
drafts this year. Keep an eye to see if he remains in San Diego, but if
he does, Vincent Jackson should be close to where he was two years ago.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - If you've always wanted to draft Roddy White but never got around to it in time, this is the year to draft the NFL's most consistent wide receiver. Roddy White may soon have competition as Matt Ryan's favorite target, since the Atlanta Falcons placed big resources into drafting Julio Jones in the 1st round, but a rookie receiver isn't likely to take the kind of numbers away from Roddy White it would take to make his numbers drop. In fact, having a big play threat on the other side might help him. I don't see the kind of drop-off for Roddy White that happened for Miles Austin with the Cowboys when Dez Bryant suddenly became a star last year. That might happen a year or two down the road (if that), so now is your time to draft Roddy White. Matt Ryan is coming into his prime years, the Falcons have another weapon to spread the coverage a little thinner, and Michael Turner is 29. All of that tells me the Atlanta Falcons are throwing it more than ever in 2011.
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - This is Jeremy Maclin's third year. While Desean Jackson may always get top billing, Maclin started to come on in the second half of last year and finished among the top 15 of most receiving lists. This is the traditional year for these kids to put all the pieces together, so it's not crazy to think Jeremy Maclin could break into the Top 10.
Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm a little leery about one-year wonders in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, after Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant disappointed in recent years after one big campaign. But this is a new Bucs franchise and I believe Mike Williams is something differnet. Sometimes overshadowed by the more hyped Mike Williams with the Seattle Seahawks, this 2nd-year player gave a huge boost to a lot of fantasy teams in 2010. With Josh Freeman only getting better, expect to see Mike Williams avoid the sophomore jinx.
Kenny Britt, Tennesse Titans - Assuming Kenny Britt doesn't miss significant time due to a suspension from some legal troubles in the offseason, Britt could be set to have a breakout year in 2011. Some might say he's broken out, but it's hard to do that with Vince Young and an aging Kerry Collins as your QB. With Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee this year, expect to see him lean heavily on the big, talented Kenny Britt. Britt has a bit of the knucklehead in him, so don't reach on this draft pick. But he's a high-upside player you might be able to get for the right price.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Avoid 2011
Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys - This is one of those situations I would avoid, unless one of these players falls significantly. Miles Austin was one of 2010's biggest disappointments and I'm not certain he'll return to form in 2011. While losing Tony Romo completely destroyed Miles Austin's season, part of the problem was that Dez Bryant dominated the production for a month. If Dez Bryant turns into the A-1 stud, Miles Austin could turn into a good secondary receiver. Tony Romo returning will help, because Romo tends to lock on Austin. As for Dez Bryant, he's got all the talent you could want. Some players have "it" and you could tell Dez had it last year. But he also had several injuries to several parts of his body. The thing which made Dez Bryant so deadly was his run-after-catch ability, but (being a Cowboys fan) I noticed he runs more like a running back out there than a wide receiver. He's thicker than most receivers, he's looks for contact, and he sometimes tries to run over people. That tells me Dez Bryant could be a constant injury risk throughout his career, or at least until he runs with more caution.
Dwayne Bowe - I got Dwayne Bowe cheap last year, so I had him on one of my key teams. A running in-joke was my posting to the league message board, "That just goes to show that you can't trust Dwayne Bowe". Dwayne Bowe is a huge talent. He's capable of games that single-handedly win your fantasy matchup that week. Dwayne Bowe can be dominating. At the same time, Dwayne Bowe can disappear for long stretches in a game--for entire games, in fact. Dwayne Bowe can't be trusted. It doesn't help that Matt Cassel is solid, but unspectacular, most of the time at his position. If the opposing defense is good or the winds are high, Matt Cassel is capable of the 60 to 70 passing yards in a game. You never know when that's going to hit, so while Dwayne Bowe might win the game for you in Week 8, when it's time to line up for the playoffs in Weeks 14 through 16, he's bound to let you down. Do you really want to trust Dwayne Bowe to come through for your team three weeks in a row? If so, you're crazy.
Brandon Marshall - Brandon Marshall is crazy. You should understand that by now. He's talented and can produce big games for you. But given the fact the Dolphins don't have much of an option at quarterback and given their too-conservative approach to the offensive side of the ball, Brandon Marshall seems an ill-fitting part in the Fins (or maybe anyone's) offense. The fact is, you're depending on a guy who is certified stupid to come through in the clutch--all season long. To draft Brandon Marshall, you're going to have to make him an integral part of your draft strategy--not just some late flier. Don't do it.
Brandon Lloyd - Brandon Lloyd was a big surprise last year. He helped one of my teams make the playoffs when my entire receiving corps exploded (in a bad way). But I got Brandon Lloyd in free agency. It's a far different matter to draft Brandon Lloyd in the top 5 or 6 rounds, which is where he's likely to go this year. You're putting your fantasy life in the hands of Tim Tebow. Think about this: guys like Antonio Bryant and Mike Sims-Walker have been huge one-year wonders in the last few years. Then they killed teams the next year who drafted them high. Brandon Lloyd has been in the league a long time. The light might finally have switched on, but don't be the one who bets that it did.
Marques Colston - Marques Colston has long been one of my least favorite high-round receivers, because Drew Brees spreads the ball around so much. While Colston is capable of huge games as big as any other fantasy performers in the league, he's bound to have disappointing weeks when Lance Moore or Robert Meachem or even Devery Henderson come to the forefront. You don't want that in a high round receiver. Besides, the injuries are starting to pile up for Marques Colston and this last offseason's injury reports looked scary. The risk-reward isn't good here, so let someone else take that risk.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver - 2011 Sleepers
Andre Roberts, Arizona Cardinals - Steve Breaston signed with the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency, which leaves a gaping hole opposite Larry Fitzgerald. 2nd-year man Andre Roberts finished the year strong in 2010, so he is the odds-on favorite to be the #2 man in Arizona. Roberts is 23 years old out of the Citadel, which is not much of a factory for NFL stars. But Andre Roberts had a 5-catch, 110-yard, 1 touchdown game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, then added a 4-catch game in Week 17. Andre Roberts is only worth a look if the Cards sign someone like Kevin Kolb. Keep an eye on the situation to see whether someone else emerges as competition.
Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints - Lance Moore is a known quantity from his big year a couple of seasons ago, but he fell off the radar screen in 2009 and only emerged again later in 2010. Moore signed a new 5-year contract with the Saints this week, so expect him to be a factor moving ahead. In fact, with Marques Colston and Robert Meachem coming off injuries, Lance Moore might become Drew Brees' go-to guy again like he was in 2008.
Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions - Nate Burleson is one of those players who always seems to hang around--and get huge contracts--but is forgotten in fantasy drafts. Often, that's for a good reason. But Nate Burleson has had stretches in his time with the Lions where he was effective. While Nate Burleson will never be a fantasy stud, he's a playing you add late-late in the draft to fill in when injuries happen. Every fantasy contender needs a few steady veterans.
Jordan Shipley, Cincinnati Bengals - For those owners in point-per-reception leagues, Jordan Shipley is a sleeper candidate. Shipley is entering his second year with the Bengals in a completely different position as last year. Chad Ochocinco may or may not be back with the team, while Terrell Owens tore up his knee 4 months ago and is definitely not a factor. Carson Palmer isn't around anymore, completing the reversal of the situation in Cinci. Jordan Shipley might become a dump-off option for Andy Dalton as he adjusts to the NFL game. Before the concussion that derailed his rookie season, Jordan Shipley had shown flashes of ability.
Kevin Ogletree, Dallas Cowboys - Every NFL team has a player who shines in preseason, causing homers to jump offsides and draft the guy in the second half of their local fantasy drafts. For the past couple of seasons, Kevin Ogletree has been that player in Dallas. Ogletree has shown quickness and speed, though he's not much of a route runner. But with Roy Williams being waived by the Boys and Dez Bryant stepping up into the starting role, it looks like Ogletree is going to get his shot at the Cowboys' #3 receiver position. The Cowboys have already said they aren't interested in signing a veteran receiver, which surprised local fans and media members. (Probably no reason to be surprised. Of all teams, Dallas is most over the salary cap.) The only competition is Sam Hurd, who is more of a special teams player. Having the 3rd receiver in Dallas might or might not be such a great option in fantasy football, but Dez Bryant showed a propensity to get injured last year. Drafting Ogletree late might give you the Cowboys' #2 receiver, if Dez Bryant can't make it through the season again.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver - 2011 Keepers for Keeper Leagues
A.J. Brown, Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Brown was the highest drafted wide receiver in 2011, and many people considered him the overall top rated player in the draft. Unfortunately, Brown lands with the ridiculous Cincinnati Bengals. Still, Chad Ochocinco had plenty of good seasons with the Bengals, and Carl Pickens was a top performer on a bad team before that. Being on an also-ran does not keep you from being a standout fantasy wideout. Sometimes, it only means your team has to throw more to catch up.
Greg Little, Cleveland Browns - Greg Little is the latest
draft-day adventure at wide receiving for the Cleveland Browns. It looks
like Mohamed Massaquoi might turn into a decent player, even though he
was drafted later than Brian Robiskie in the second round a couple of
years ago. The 6'3" Greg Little also was drafted in the 2nd round
(2011), and he's the latest savior for the franchise. With enough high
picks, the Browns are eventually going to turn the corner, and I'm
betting Mike Holmgren is going to be the one to help do that. Perhaps
Greg Little is the next piece.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dirty Birds traded a lot to draft
Julio Jones, so expect to see him get a lot of opportunities to prove
himself. With Matt Ryan coming into his prime and Roddy White drawing
double coverage, Julio Jones is in the perfect situation.
John Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs - With Steve Breaston signing a contract with the Chiefs, John Baldwin is only worth drafting in keeper and dynasty leagues. But Baldwin was a high draft pick for a reason.
Titus Young, Detroit Lions - Titus Young is going to be the Lions #3 receiver this year, but he could turn into a starter and maybe a star in future years. Lions coaches have compared Titus Young to Desean Jackson. Comparisons are easy and coaches tend to over-exaggerate on draft day, but with a young offense around him, Titus Young is worth a keeper selection.
Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers - The Chargers drafted Vincent Brown to be their star receiver of the future. That time might not come this year, but it's going to arrive sometime. Add Vincent Brown late in your keeper or dynasty drafts and be prepared to sit on him.
This article about fantasy football wide receivers was posted July 28, 2011.