Fantasy Football Tight Ends 2011
by John Clifton
Fantasy football tight ends are having a golden age. In 2011, the tight end position is deeper and has more potential standouts than at any time in my memory. It's for that reason that I stress you avoid being among the first two or three team owners to draft a tight end. You'll find so many options that it just doesn't make much sense to waste high round picks on a TE. In most scoring systems, the difference in #1 and #10 might be huge, but the difference in #2 and #10 often isn't that big. Since you have no idea who the absolute #1 tight end is going to be, it's better to worry about other positions, draft a solid guy in that group of the 5th to 8th best tight ends, and hope he's the one who has that year head-and-shoulders above the rest. Though I don't list him, don't forget Jermichael Finley. He might be the #1 option in 2011, if his injury recovery continues apace.
Top Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Draft in 2011
Owen
Daniels - One reason Matt Schaub wasn't his old self in 2010 was
Owen Daniels hardly factored into the equation. Two years removed from
his season-ending injury, expect Owen Daniels to be fully recovered and
looking more like the player who was leading tight ends midway through
2009. We tend to forget that Owen Daniels was having one of those rare
seasons when he got injured in 2009. While he may never be quite the
same player he was, expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark.
Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints - Jimmy Graham showed flashes in his limited time on the field in 2010, enough that the Saints decided to replace Jeremy Shockey with him. Jimmy Graham has a chance to be something special in New Orleans. Marques Colston once was Drew Brees' go-to guy, but those days may be in the past. Lance Moore was that player for one season and he had his moments last season, but you couldn't say he's Brees' main target. That leaves the door open for Jimmy Graham, a big, athletic kid in his second year. Remember, back in the day, Drew Brees enjoyed throwing the ball to Antonio Gates. I see an outside chance that Jimmy Graham becomes the new go-to guy, at least for a year.
Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans - Jared Cook was a huge disappointment his rookie season. Jared Cook showed flashes in his second season. He might be ready to break out in his third year with the team. Matt Hasselbeck is now the Titans QB for this coming year and Hasselbeck has gone to his tight ends in the past. Cook was drafted to be the answer at TE, so if he's going to become that player, this is the year.
Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions - You can say the same thing about Brandon Pettigrew that you can say about every other Detroit Lions skill position player: he'll be great if he stays healthy. Pettigrew was a difference maker as a rookie last year, even when he was splitting time with Tony Scheffler. Expect to see Brandon Pettigrew take over this year--if he stays healthy.
Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders - Zach Miller has proven one thing with the Oakland Raiders. It doesn't matter who his quarterback is, he's going to put up his numbers. That's a good type of tight end to have. You've seen Zach Miller be a viable fantasy tight end with Jamarcus Russell at quarterback, so this is a guy who is quarterback-proof. The only danger is the Raiders might one day justify Al Davis' faith in drafting all these speedy receivers and be able to complete the ball to a few of those guys. Until that day comes, Zach Miller will be the dump-off valve for the Raiders. He got injured at a point last year, so don't look too close to his numbers in 2010. Before the injury, he was a top fantasy performer.
Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts - Dallas Clark was the #1 fantasy tight end in 2009 by a long shot. He was a huge fantasy producer in 2010 until he got injured. When he went out, Jacob Tamme became a fantasy stud. We can extrapolate from that the fact that Peyton Manning likes to throw to his tight end. Dallas Clark is going to have to prove he's fully back from the injury and has no lingering issues, which is the main reason you'll see him down the draft board a few spots. But if he's healthy and ready to go, Dallas Clark should make the difference in a lot of games. I don't expect Clark to be fully back to 100%, even if he's healthy, so don't expect 2009 production consistently. Keep an eye on Jacob Tamme if Clark doesn't appear to be working out in preseason or early in the season, though he'll probably get drafted on numbers alone--despite no longer being the starter.
Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham had a lot going against him last year. He was drafted by a team with an OC who doesn't throw the ball to tight ends. He was coming off a major knee surgery. The rookie Gresham also had Ochocinco and TO demanding the ball most of the time. Despite all of that, Gresham ended up with 53 catches. While his yards-per-catch average wasn't very impressive, you can chalk that up to not having fully recovered from the knee injury. Two years removed, he should have his full athleticism back and be ready to show exactly what he can do. The receiving corps doesn't look as formidable as a year ago, while the veteran quarterback has retired and rookie Andy Dalton is likely to be the starter. That sounds like a lot of dump-off passes. Expect to see Jermaine Gresham surpass the 53-catch total. Gresham was drafted to be a star tight end, so he should get his change in '11.
Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Avoid in 2011
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - I'm not saying Antonio Gates is going to bust this year. I'm saying he's not going to be worth the pick you'd have to give up to acquire him. All things being equal, I'd probably still select Antonio Gates above any other tight end in the NFL--with the possible exception of Jermichael Finley. But all things aren't equal in a fantasy football draft, where you probably have to select Gates in the 4th round. I don't know if his numbers are going to warrant that selection, given that you'll be able to draft people like Owen Daniels, Brandon Pettigrew, and Zach Miller much lower. For one thing, Antonio Gates has had a mountain of injuries. He usually plays through them, but I've seen this with other tight ends. I remember Ben Coates was a warrior year-in and year-out, until one season he was suddenly a non-factor. It goes quickly. While Antonio Gates probably has a couple of more years on the top, drafting him in the 4th round means you're mortgaging the season on him weathering the injury storm. It's too big of a risk for not that much of a bigger reward.
Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots - It's fantasy football heresy in 2011 to tell people to avoid the New England Patriots' tight ends, but I'm using the same logic that I use when I say avoid the Saints wide receivers. While you can win games with these players, it's hard to win titles. It's all about maintaining consistency and a high level of play throughout the season. Which is going to have the big game that week? Aaron Hernandez seems to be the main threat, but then, Rob Gronkowski suddenly emerges with a week or two where he's the main target. Wes Welker might be closer to the Wes Welker of old in 2011, while most people expect to see the Patriots eventually find a receiver opposite Welker to take some of the load (whether it's Branch or someone else). The Patriots won a lot of games last year and got the #1 seed, but they lost their first playoff game again, this time because they Jets shut them down until late in the game. Unless you see Hernandez emerging as the unchallenged #1 tight end and Gronkowski fading into the background (or vice versa), I suggest you don't draft one of these two tight ends. You'll be disappointed too many different weeks, if the Pats offensive totals follow any kind of football logic.
Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kellen Winslow is a tough guy who plays through injury. No matter what you think about the man (knucklehead), you have to give him that. I've seen Kellen Winslow play every week of a season when he's listed as Questionable, but the injuries have finally taken their toll. Kellen Winslow is no longer an elite tight end. He's a decent bye-week fill-in and nothing more.
Dustin Keller, New York Jets - The Jets are one of those
offenses so inconsistent that Dustin Keller is never a safe option to
start at tight end. Through six weeks last year, Dustin Keller was a
fantasy stud. But as soon as Santonio Holmes returned to the team,
Keller disappeared. I'm afraid that the Jets Offense has room for one
stud receiving option, and Dustin Keller isn't going to be that option
most of the time. If he was on your team in the second half of 2010, you
know what I'm talking about.
Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys - Never draft Marty-B. Nuff said.
Fantasy Football Tight End Sleepers and Keeper Picks 2011
Ed Dickson, Baltimore Ravens - Ed Dickson showed flashes towards the end of the season when Todd Heap started missing games. With Todd Heap waived by the Ravens, look for the athletic 2nd-year player Ed Dickson to become a favorite option for Joe Flacco. The Ravens said they might try to resign Todd Heap for a lower price tag, but expect the younger athlete to be the main tight end option in the future, even if that happens.
Tony Moeaki, Kansas City Chiefs - Moeaki had enough of an impact last year that some wouldn't consider him a sleeper candidate. But in a field of tight ends that's deeper than ever before, players like Tony Moeaki tend to fade into the background. Moeaki had big games and made dazzling catches, then he had long stretches of the season where he was useless to a fantasy owner. That sums up most of the Kansas City Chiefs offensive stars last year, but Moeaki had a better excuse--he was a rookie.
Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford and the Rams offensive staff showed a willingness to throw to the tight end position, given a couple of good weeks from Michael Hoomanawanui. But the scouting report on Michael Hoomanawanui was that he was a blocking tight end with almost no pass-catching skills, so you can't expect him to be a long-term fantasy factor. Lance Kendricks was drafted to be that guy. If you decide to draft a St. Louis Rams tight end, take a flier on this rookie extremely late in your draft.
John Phillips, Dallas Cowboys - John Phillips showed some things his rookie season in 2009 and the Cowboys sounded bound and determined to make him a contributor to the offense in 2010. By all accounts, he was having the best training camp of anybody on the roster, then he went out with a season-ending injury in a preseason game. In 2011, John Phillips returns and is expected to be the #2 tight end behind Jason Witten. You might think I wouldn't point out such a player after the Hernandez-Gronkowski talk, but Witten is getting up there in age and has had some injuries in recent years, so if Witten goes out for any length of time, remember this name. Otherwise, he's probably not worth a selection in most formats.
This article about fantasy football tight ends was posted July 28, 2011.