Fantasy Football Running Backs 2011
by John Clifton
The 2011 list of fantasy football running backs are (as always) rife with injury risks, murky depth charts, and dramatic shifts in fortune for those who draft them. After all these years, the fantasy RB is still the most important position in the game. If you draft healthy and productive running backs, your team is almost certain to be one of the top contenders. If you field a below-average stable of fantasy halfbacks, it's going to be hard to be a consistent winner in fantasy football.
With
that in mind, let's look at the latest crop of fantasy QBs. You'll
notice that many of my players to avoid are among the top-ranked players
on most lists, including the two guys I've seen going 1-2 in drafts. If
you disagree with my assessment, you'll be among the majority. I want to
point out reasons for my concerns, though. As for my picks for guys to
select, I'll be brief in my analysis.
2011 Top Fantasy Football Running Backs to Draft
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens - Willis McGahee was cut the other day, so Ray Rice has no one to take reps from him. The Ravens said there's a chance a few of the guys they cut might resign, but whatever the case, Ray Rice is a top fantasy producer on a top NFL franchise. He was great two years ago and really good a year ago.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles - LeSean McCoy showed his somewhat lackluster rookie system was a fluke and he became on the top players in fantasy football in 2008. With Michael Vick, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin also lining up with McCoy, expect to see McCoy taking on distracted defenses all year. He's took young for injury concerns to be a factor.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas Diego Chargers - Fantasy owners of Jamaal Charles were pulling their hair out in the early part of the 2010. Despite their player being the Chiefs most effective runner and big play threat, Thomas Jones continued to get the starts and big percentage of the carries. The fact the Chiefs started off hot meant that Todd Haley wasn't likely to change the formula anytime soon, either. As the season wore on, Jamaal Charles became a bigger factor and, by the end of the season, he was a top fantasy football performer. Todd Haley's reticence to turn everything over to Jamaal Charles in 2010 is probably a good thing in 2011, since that means Jamaal Charles has less wear-and-tear than he would have otherwise. In fact, we're in the same holding pattern as a season ago. If Jamaal Charles gets 80% of the carries, he'll be a Top 5 fantasy running back. The chances are better than ever that's going to happen, so be ready to pull the trigger on Jamaal Charles once the top running backs go off the board.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers - Anyone who drafted Ryan Mathews probably hates him right now. After the Chargers traded up to draft Mathews and talked all offseason about what he was going to do for their running game, he got injured in week 1 and was never really a viable fantasy option--despite only missing 4 games. (I was a Mathews believer last year and it seemed like he missed 10 games.) I was lucky enough to grab Mike Tolbert, but if you weren't, Ryan Mathews may have derailed your whole season. It was some small consolation that he produced a huge Week 17, after most leagues were already decided. That performance gave some indication what Ryan Mathews can produce, if he stays healthy. In 2011, the Chargers are just as dedicated to Ryan Mathews, so it looks like he gets a second chance to prove himself. Even better, his lackluster rookie season probably means you can draft him lower than you would have last year. So if you wait to get your second runner, or you have a league that allows you to start a third runner, Ryan Mathews is once again a high-upside running back on a good offense. But if it looks like he's going in the top rounds of drafts again this year, I wouldn't blame you if you pass on him.
Shonn Greene, New York Jets - Shonn Green looked promising in the playoff run in 2009-10 for the Jets, and most of the talk last year at this time had Greene as the Jets' #1 runner. If you were one of those owners who bought into the hype, you were burned and burned bad. It hardly helped that Shonn Greene started producing later in the season, long after he might have helped your team. Here in 2011, it looks like Shonn Greene is the undisputed starting runner with the New York Jets. Ladainian Tomlinson has publicly stated he'll be happy to be the 3rd down back and the Jets brass has indicated Greene is the man. Given the havoc Greene played on people's seasons last year, you might be able to draft him significantly lower than his 2010 price tag. If so, follow the same logic with Ryan Mathews and draft him as a value pick. Once again, if Shonn Greene is going in the 2nd and 3rd rounds again, I'd probably find different options. The Jets have shown they can't exactly be trusted at their word on these things. But if you can get into Shonn Greene with a lesser investment, it's not a bad upside pick. The New York Jets should be in games all year, so their primary runner should be a big part of their ball control strategy.
LaGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Before getting to excited about LaGarrette Blount, make sure the Bucs don't sign a big name, high dollar free agent running back. The Buccaneers front office has a lot of money they need to spend to get with compliance of the new CBA salary cap rules and a lot of speculation has them signing someone like Reggie Bush or even Ahmad Bradshaw. If Bush signs, I wouldn't give it too much thought, because Bush gives the Bucs one more offensive weapon without eating into the between-the-tackles carries of Blount (think Pierre Thomas of a couple of seasons ago). But if someone like Ahmad Bradshaw signed (unlikely at the moment), all bets are off. More than likely, the signee will be someone like Bush or perhaps one of the Dolphins leaving free agent RBs: Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams. LaGarrette Blount showed a lot of talent last year, enough that I expect the Bucs are going to make him their feature back in 2011.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints - It might take a while before he fully takes over the role, but the writing is on the wall: Mark Ingram is the future of running back for the New Orleans Saints. For all the hand-wringing by fantasy owners on NFL Draft Day about the glut at RB for the Saints with the drafting of Ingram, the departure of Reggie Bush actually clears things up significantly. Pierre Thomas is still going to be early competition for Mark Ingram, but Ingram is the highly-touted 1st round pick, while Pierre Thomas is coming off an injury-riddled season. While Thomas might be a factor--a big factor--in 2011, Mark Ingram is going to make his presence felt at some point. That might be Week 1 or Week 11, but it's going to happen. It goes without saying that Mark Ingram on one of the league's best offenses is a golden pick for keeper and dynasty leagues.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans - Notice how I put Arian Foster at the bottom of this list. Going by 2010 numbers, Arian Foster should be the undisputed #1 draft pick in all formats. But 2011 isn't 2010 and you shouldn't expect Arian Foster to repeat what he did in 2010, any more than Chris Johnson repeated in 2010 what he did in 2009. These things just don't happen that way in the NFL. So the question becomes, will Arian Foster become a solid 1st-round pick or will the heavy workload ruin him for 2011? Given that he's only had one year of major carries, I expect Arian Foster is about as likely as anyone else to make it through the 2011 season. Chris Johnson wasn't as effective, but he still played all year last year and had his moments. The Texans have a better offensive cast surrounding Foster, so teams won't be able to key on him the way they did Chris Johnson last year. So I still place Arian Foster in the draft list, but with enough caveats that you don't automatically assume he's the #1 overall player selected. In the end, the biggest obstacle to a big year might be the mercurial Gary Kubiak. Even last year, Kubiak benched Foster one game against the Raiders for some infraction, giving Derrick Ward the start instead. Then there's the infamous game in the fantasy playoffs two years ago where Kubiak praised Foster all week, then benched him against the Rams after a fumble on his 2nd carry. The point being, Gary Kubiak is about as unstable as an NFL coach can be, so despite having the best season of any player in the NFL in 2010, you just never know what a year does to a situation in the NFL.
Fantasy Football Running Backs to Avoid in 2011
Adrian Peterson - For good reason, Adrian Peterson is one of the few options to go #1 overall in fantasy drafts across the nation. Nothing "AD" (or "All-Day") has done in his first 4 NFL seasons should give you reason to fear a drop-off. But that's my point. Adrian Peterson has been a workhorse for four years and I start to wonder when that streak is going to end. The reason the Vikings got AD at the 7th pick was because of injury concerns. Peterson had been injured every year with the OU Sooners. That hasn't emerged in the NFL, despite a heavy workload on an artificial surface. Most fantasy runners outside of Ladainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, and Barry Sanders don't have that kind of sustained success, and all three of those runners were quite different than Peterson. Each of those guys had the squirrely ability to avoid contact at the point of tackle, usually avoiding direct hits. But Adrian Peterson is a big, upright runner who dishes out a lot of punishment and takes a lot of direct hits. He's an injury waiting to happen.
Chris Johnson - Chris Johnson has had the most touches of any running back over the past two seasons. Chris Johnson carries the ball often. Chris Johnson catches a lot of balls. But still, he's only had two years where he's the primary ball carrier after splitting time his rookie season, so you'd think CJ has another year or two before the wear-and-tear of the NFL starts to be a concern. But Chris Johnson is the #1 candidate among top NFL runners to be a holdout in 2011. He's making $800,000 a year and thinks, as one of the NFL's star players, he deserves a little more for his efforts. If the Titans don't see it that way, things could get ugly. Not only will that further disrupt and already disrupted NFL preseason for Johnson, but many NFL watchers believe there's a direct correlation between long holdouts and regular season injuries. Add it all up and Chris Johnson could become an injury risk in 2011. Only assume this is the case if Chris Johnson holds out and the impasse drags on late into the Titans' training camp.
Michael Turner - I've gone over this one on other articles, so
I'll keep this short. Michael Turner has turned 29, when many NFL
runners suddenly look over-the-hill. You might think Michael Turner is
young for 29, since he spent several seasons behind Ladainian Tomlinson.
But Turner is also a big back who has taken his share of big hits over
the years. He's also shown a propensity to get injured. Whether through
age or injury, Michael Tuner has question marks surrounding him this
coming year.
Stephen Jackson - Another player whom I have concerns about is Steven
Jackson. The talented back for the St. Louis Rams is another top
producer who runs big and is big. Unlike Michael Turner, Steven Jackson
has sustained a lot of wear and tear over the years, and he's been
injured often (though not so much lately). It's a shame, because I
always said the Rams were wasting Jackson's best years in the NFL, and I
still can't help but wonder if that won't be true. With Sam Bradbord
leading a Rams resurgence, a healthy and in-his-prime Steven Jackson
could vault to the elite of the NFL, but I think Jackson is beyond his
prime.
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals - Cedric Benson had a big year in 2009. In 2010, his campaign was a bit more disappointing. After each season, he's run into legal troubles, while he's technically a free agent right now. The Bengals have shown every indication they want to resign Cedric Benson, despite him producing a lousy 3.5 yards per carry total last year. With a rookie at quarterback and at least one major weapon (Terrell Owens) out the door at receiver, I don't see Cedric Benson doing better this year. Stay far away from Ced-Ben.
Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins - Ryan Torain had his moments in 2010 and he probably helped a number of teams win their league title. Torain certainly helped a team of mine that was fighting through Ryan Mathews and CJ Spiller troubles, so I'm not going to say too many bad things about him. But Ryan Torain, even last year, showed he was injury prone. Perhaps more importantly, the Skins drafted Roy Helu in the NFL Draft this year and Shanahan has been praising Helu up and down. Ryan Torain almost certainly gets the Week 1 start, but don't draft Torain thinking he has no competition for the job.
Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns - It's more than the Madden Curse. It's the fact that Peyton Hillis, before the 2010 season, was an injury machine. I remember taking a real liking to the kid two or three years ago when he was with the Denver Broncos and, when the Broncos started having major injury issues with their RBs, picking up Hillis off the waiver wire as a starter (my team, too, had major injury issues). If memory serves, Hillis had 75 yards and a touchdown in a quarter of work in his first game as a starter, then promplty went out for the season early in the 2nd quarter. Peyton Hillis is a big guy, a fullback essentially, who is going to take a lot of big shots. He plays in a division where Ray Lewis, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu fly around the line of scrimmage, and 25% of his schedule is against the Steelers and Ravens. So I wonder if Peyton Hillis has it in him to be a year-in, year-out starting NFL RB. He might, especially since the Browns have a young and talented offensive line. If you don't see an injury risk here, then by all means draft Peyton Hillis where he's listed in the magazines and on the websites.
Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (and Mike Goodsen) - The Panthers were awful in 2010. While the Williams and Stewart combo was successful and productive when the Panthers were a playoff contender two years ago, when a team goes 2-14, the platoon situation is a really bad idea for fantasy football. The factors that have to work in their favor creates a high degree of difficulty for either player being a really good fantasy option, especially since Carolina is breaking in a rookie QB and, with Steve Smith probably moving on, has no receiving corps to speak of. The Panthers should be awful in 2010 and you're crazy if you depend on one of these players to lead your fantasy hopes. Assuming the newly-signed Deangelo Williams is declared the starter, if you can get Jonathan Stewart as a low-risk middle-round pick, it probably makes sense to draft him and stash him. But also remember that Mike Goodsen ruined things for Stewart, even when Deangelo went out with injury last year.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD had offseason knee surgery and he now has a bone-on-bone situation in his repaired knee. Maurice Jones-Drew has always been on the small side for an NFL star runner and he's now 27 years old. The Jacksonville Jaguars are also one of the least compelling offenses in the league, once you get past Maurice Jones-Drew. Mike Sims-Walker was no Jerry Rice, but they Jags are dedicated to getting rid of their troublesome, yet talented, best receiver. Finally, the Jags may install rookie Blaine Gabbert as their starter at some point this season, if nothing else to drum up fan interest. I just see a whole list of troubling questions around Maurice Jones-Drew. Let someone else draft him in 2011.
All Indianapolis Colts Runners - Whether it's Joseph Addai or Donald Brown, the Indianapolis Colts have drifted further and further away from the running game in recent years. Two years ago, Addai got enough receptions and touchdowns to mask that fact. Last year, it was apparent to all that the Colts were a pass-first, pass-second team. Avoid drafting Colts runners, until the new offensive coordinator shows he has a different plan. Frankly, neither Joseph Addai or Donald Brown have showed themselves worthy of a position on a fantasy roster. For where you would have to draft them, you can find better options. If you draft any of them, draft Delone Carter, the 222-pound 4th round pick out of Syracuse, especially if you're in a keeper league. Some think he's the future in the Indie running game, anyway.
2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Handcuffs
Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers - This is an obvious one. Not
only did Ryan Mathews give fantasy owners plenty of reason to doubt his
durability last year, but Mike Tolbert proved he could be productive as
the Chargers starting halfback.
Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders - Check to see if Michael Bush resigns
with the Raiders or lands elsewhere. If Michael Bush stays in Oakland,
he's in the same situation he was last year. Darren McFadden is the
clear #1 runner in Oakland after his breakout year, but Michael Bush has
shown he can post big numbers when he gets the chance. McFadden hasn't
always shown himself to be indestructible out there on the field, so
Michael Bush is one ankle injury away from big fantasy numbers.
James Starks, Green Bay Packers - Every source seems to indicate Ryan Grant will be the Packers starter, or at least get the first crack at starting in 2011. Most of those sources seem to think James Starks might be part of a platoon, though. This could be murky part of the year, and after his big contributions in the Superbowl drive, I have a hard time seeing James Starks simply going back to the bench. Starks is going to get significant carries, and I'm still not sure if he won't prove to be the starting runner in the end.
Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys - Marion "The Barbarian" Barber is no longer a Dallas Cowboy, meaning Tashard Choice is the new #2 runner in Dallas. What's more, he's behind the brittle Felix Jones, so Tashard Choice looks to be in a good position to be a fantasy factor in 2011. In most regular seasons, Tashard Choice might lose his position to Demarco Murray, but given the lack of OTAs or offseason workout program, many rookie runners are likely to be eased into games slower than usual. Many have problems with fumbles and blocking schemes early on, so expect with reasonable certainty that Tashard Choice should be Jones' primary backup--at least in the first half of the season.
Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer was drafted to be Mendenhall's backup, but Isaac Redman occupied that position all of last year. Dwyer was inactive most of the year and Isaac Redman even got significant carries in a few games. You'll have to keep track of this one in the preseason to see who Mendenhall's true handcuff is, but Rashard Mendenhall has been in the league long enough that he's getting into the danger zone as far as injuries are concerned. So if you draft Mendenhall, draft his handcuff, just in case. Besides that rookie year shoulder separation, Mendenhall has been pretty durable, but that durability streak can end with any one hit.
Javon Ringer, Tennesse Titans - The Titans waived LaGarrette Bount to keep Javon Ringer as Chris Johnson's primary backup in 2010. To help preserve CJ, the Titans even gave Javon Ringer non-cleanup duty carries at times throughout the season, and he even wolfed a few touchdowns. With Chris Johnson possibly set to hold out for a bigger contract, Javon Ringer thus becomes a candidate for far greater significance than he's ever had before. Chris Johnson might sit out, giving Ringer a chance to start a game or two. Or more likely, Chris Johnson might sit out most of camp, sign late in the preseason, then get injured due to lack of conditioning--a common pattern in recent years for holdouts. The point being, Javon Ringer is in a better position than ever to get real playing time this year, and he showed an ability to produce in limited exposure last year.
2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers
Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins - Of all the rookie running backs, Daniel Thomas might be in the best situation for starting Week 1. The Miami Dolphins have said they won't have Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams back in 2011, which means there's a gaping hole in the Dolphins offensive depth chart. As a 230 pound back with some college experience in the Wildcat Offense, the 2nd round selection looks to be a perfect fit for the Dolphins plodding style of offense. The biggest question may be whether the Fins are going to have a good enough offense to make the rookie a viable fantasy option. Fantasy football veterans know enough to see the value of having any starting fantasy running back. The wild card factor that every rookie RB represents means the kid might be great or might go bust, but if you want to draft a halfback and get an immediate evaluation, Daniel Thomas is probably your best option.
Mikael LeShoure, Detroit Lions - Javid Best showed he had NFL big play ability in his rookie season, but he also showed the limitations that caused him to slide through the first round of the NFL Draft--injury concerns. Javid Best dealt with a turf toe most of the year, which hampered his effectiveness and didn't do a lot to dispel question marks. The Detroit Lions hedged their bets in the draft this year, selecting Mikael LeShoure in the 2nd round. LeShoure is a very different type of back than Best. Coming from the same college program as Rashard Mendenhall, Leshoure is in the Mendenhall mode. He's big and relatively quick for his size, and should give the Lions a nice compliment to Javid Best. It's still uncertain how the carries get shared, though I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with Best's injury situation. At the least, Lions coaches have said Mikael LeShoure is going to be the short-yardage and probably goal line back. That should send red flags to people who have Best in keeper leagues. For my money, given the short yardage option and the potential for injury fill-in time, I'd rather wait a few rounds and draft the rookie than draft Javid Best to be my starter.
Roy Helu, Washington Redskins - Roy Helu is the future at running back for the Washington Redskins. The Skins traded up in the 4th round to select him and Mike Shanahan has already compared Helu to a young Clinton Portis. At 6'0", 219 pounds, and timed at 4.4 speed, Roy Helu has the classic NFL running back measurables. Ryan Torain will start the season as the Redskins #1 back, but he's also one of the most injury prone runners in the game, so expect Helu to get his opportunities somewhere along the line. Shanahan drafted Roy Helu to be his man.
Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals - Chris "Beanie" Wells doesn't appear to be the answer in Arizona, for whatever reason. Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals brass seem to have come to that conclusion, which is why they drafted Ryan Williams in the draft this year. Ryan Williams is 5'10" and 210 pounds and reminds one scout of Lesean McCoy. That may be a bit much, but since Chris Wells hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy, Ryan Williams is an intriguing option nevertheless. If you have no faith that Wells and Hightower are the answer in Arizona, you might take a shot on Ryan Williams instead.
Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals - Bernard Scott has been waiting in the wings for three years now. Were it not for a surprisingly good 2009 campaign from Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott might have been the Bengals #1 runner two seasons ago. He wasn't ready for the task at that time, but Bernard Scott showed flashes in spot play last year. With the Bengals in a year of transition and with Cedric Benson regressing in the last year (and getting in trouble with the law...again), it's only a matter of time before Bernard Scott gets his chance. I'm saying 2011 is the year, whether it comes in Week 1, Week 6, or Week 12. Stash Bernard Scott on the bench and see if he comes through.
Ben Tate, Houston Texans - Don't forget about Ben Tate, whom the Houston Texans drafted in 2010 to be their main running back. Arian Foster was probably going to win the starting job anyway, but when Ben Tate went out in the preseason with a season-ending injury, the rest was history. Still, Gary Kubiak is squirrely with his running backs. Remember when Steve Slaton was the next big thing in Houston? That was three years ago. Kubiak even benched Foster one time last year in liea of Derrick Ward, because Foster had done something to offend him. Foster returned in the second quarter (against the Raiders) and had one of his best statistical games of the year, but Kubiak cost fantasy owners 80 yards and a touchdown (Ward's numbers to that point) with his antics. My point being, Gary Kubiak was Mike Shanahan's offensive coordinator for years, and he's about as goofy as Shanahan when it comes to his running back situation. So if you have Arian Foster, by all means handcuff Ben Tate to him. And if you don't have Arian Foster, take a flier on Ben Tate. You never know when he's suddenly the new star of the show.
Demarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys - Demarco Murray was the Dallas Cowboys 3rd round selection and there's a good chance he'll see significant touches in 2011. With the cutting of Marion Barber, Felix Jones becomes the starting runner for the Cowboys. But to say Felix Jones has injury concerns is a massive understatement. Jones got through last year without too many injury problems, but he did that by bulking up 10-15 pounds that robbed him of some of his quickness and speed. Tashard Choice is the 2nd option, and he's a Cowboys fan and media favorite. But despite his production over the years, I have the suspicion Tashard Choice isn't an NFL starter. Most of the time when he's gotten significant playing time, it's been the second half of the NFL season, when teams and defenses are worn down, tired, and slowed from attrition. This makes Tashard Choice look faster and stronger than he really is, and I think the Cowboys coaching staff knows this. So while Demarco Murray comes in as the #3 guy, the team is looking for him to be a future starter. Murray comes in at 6'0", 213 pounds, and he's been timed at 4.4. The big knock on Murray is that he's injury prone, but much of that complaint is the fact he missed a BCS Championship Game and another bowl game--some of the biggest games of his career. As Murray put in a recent interview, he only missed 4 games in 4 years as the starter at Oklahoma, frankly a much better record than Adrian Peterson had at OU. Demarco Murray is certainly no Adrian Peterson, but he might be good enough to eventually beat out Felix Jones and Tashard Choice as the Cowboys starter. Given an injury or two, he might be a factor in 2011.
This article about fantasy football running backs was posted July 28, 2011.