Fantasy Football Quarterbacks 2011
by John Clifton
The fantasy football quarterback position may not have the preeminence it does in the real National Football League, but in most scoring systems, a QB is still the highest scoring player in the league every year. Fantasy football quarterbacks remain a key component of most fantasy football teams, even in leagues where the scoring system and dearth of good running backs dictates you wait a few rounds to draft them. Looking ahead to 2011, here are some thoughts on the current crop of fantasy football quarterbacks. It goes without saying that Aaron Rodgers is the creme-de-la-creme of the fantasy passers in 2011.
Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Draft in 2011
Philip
Rivers - Philip Rivers posted big fantasy stats last year while
missing Vincent Jackson most of the seasons and having Malcolm Floyd and
Antonio Gates injured for significant stretches. Rivers also missed his
starting left tackle for the first part of the season, while having a
suspect running game due to the failure of Ryan Mathews to make an
impact. Everything seemed set up for Philip Rivers to have a
disappointing 2010, but he came through with another big year. With
improvements in most, if not all, of the areas I pointed out, Philip
Rivers should do at least as well as in '10, and probably better.
Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a favorite whipping boy these days, and for good reason. The team collapsed while Tony Romo was leading them last year (if you call it that), while the Cowboys posted a 5-3 record the second half of the season after Jason Garrett was made head coach and with Jon Kitna starting (most) of the games, showing that talent wasn't the problem. So you might wonder why Tony Romo gets such high billing. Romo's weapons are Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten--for the first time all three are starters. Roy Williams is gone, while the offensive line should be improved with the arrival of Tyron Smith in place of an aging Marc Colombo. Perhaps most important, though, is the role Tony Romo stepped into during the lockout. Romo became the man who organized practices for the Cowboys players, and by all reports, he stepped into a leadership role. Romo got married in the offseason, not to some Hollywood celebrity, but to a local girl. It sounds like Tony Romo has turned a corner.
Matt Schaub - Matt Schaub had a disappointing year in 2010. That's not to say he was awful, because I know of one or two fantasy teams that won league titles (due to superior play elsewhere) with Schaub as their bus driver. But Schaub was drafted higher than ever last year and didn't provide the bang-for-the-buck team owners might have wanted. But a big part of his lack of production was because Arian Foster was such a dominant fantasy standout. Foster isn't likely to score at the same rate this year, which should naturally translate to better numbers for Matt Schaub. Quite frankly, Schaub didn't have to post the numbers last year he did in '08 and '09. Also, Owen Daniels should be fully recovered from the injury which ended his season two years ago, giving Schaub his second biggest target from his huge 2009 campaign. With Andre Johnson still in his prime and Gary Kubiak desperate to save his job, expect to see Matt Schaub's numbers rise.
Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan has been a solid fantasy option in the past couple of years, but always at the bottom end of the fantasy starters or top end of the fantasy backups. With Matt Ryan coming into his 4th NFL season, it's time to call him a veteran. With Roddy White and the ageless Tony Gonzales, he still has a couple of dependable passing targets. The big change is Julio Jones, whom many considered the best receiver coming out in 2011, on the other side from Roddy White. That should give Matt Ryan another big play option on the field at all times, so defenses can't key solely on Roddy White anymore. Even if you assume the rookie will have flashes, but not be as consistent as a veteran, those big plays should be enough to launch Matt Ryan's numbers into the elite category. I also make one other prediction: Michael Turner is 29 and he's a big back who takes a lot of shots and has a history of injury. Sometimes, anytime, Michael Turner's skills and health are going to erode. When they do, Matt Ryan will have to drive the offense more than ever.
Josh Freeman - Josh Freeman teamed up with Mike Williams to be the NFL's most exciting young QB-WR combo in 2010. The Buccaneers exceeded expectations greatly last year and, sophomore jinx notwithstanding, I expect more growth from the Bucs. Expect to see the Buccaneers to improve their team in many ways this offseason, because they have to spend over $50 million in free agency to get to the new CBA-imposed salary cap minimum. If they spend wisely, the Bucs should have the money to add solid veterans to their core of good young skill position players. The Bucs may be ready to take the next step, so draft Josh Freeman as a high upside backup or a low-end starter.
Matthew Stafford - Matthew Stafford has shown flashes, though he's mostly shown an ability to get injured. A lot of that is playing for a really bad team and taking big hits while playing catch-up in the NFL. If you assume the Detroit Lions are in more ballgames in 2011--and many people assume their improved defense and running game should allow for that--then Matthew Stafford has a much bigger chance of actually making it through a season. With Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, and rookie Titus Young on the field, Stafford should have a more talented receiving corps than he's ever had before. I'm not saying you draft Matt Stafford as your fantasy starter, but if he's there are a quality backup, Matthew Stafford has a lot of upside potential.
Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid in 2011
Michael Vick - Michael Vick was a boon to any team which added him late in fantasy drafts or early in free agency last year. Many teams won titles because they got the huge boost that Mike Vick represented, whether they started the year with Kevin Kolb as starter or not. I still remember Michael Vick winning a key matchup for me with his miracle game versus the Redskins on Monday Night, when I thought I had no chance of winning. So I get all that. But Michael Vick also slowed down (and got banged up) as the season wore on last year. Teams either started to figure him out, or his body started to wear out. That's the rub with Michael Vick: he's a 6'0" thin quarterback and his running style means he takes a lot of shots. Even when he doesn't miss games, the hits pile up as the season moves on. To add Michael Vick to your team this year, it's going to cost you a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounder in most drafts--not the 20th round flier or waiver wire pickup it did last year. When it's time for your fantasy playoffs, Vick is going to have taken a lot of hits and probably won't be as effective as you want him to be.
Peyton Manning - It's fantasy football heresy to warn people off of Peyton Manning. Manning is as dependable a fantasy producer as there's ever been in the game. So you might think it's crazy to list him as a guy to avoid. But Peyton Manning is coming off a neck surgery that's going to limit him through training camp, and might (only might) cause him to miss the start of the season. Manning's getting older. His receiving corps and offensive line aren't what it once was, while Dallas Clark is coming off a major injury. The Colts running game is awful, while longtime offensive coordinator is now in the New York Jets organization. Now, if anyone is going to overcome all that, it's Peyton Manning. He probably will. But given the high round draft pick it's going to take to add Manning to your team, I suggest you avoid him. Every player has a bad year sometime and Peyton Manning hasn't had his. I think there were signs the Colts were starting to show signs of aging all last year. So maybe 2011 is the year Manning disappointed his fantasy owners. If you want him that bad, let someone else draft Peyton Manning. If Manning is slowed by the injury to start the year, you'll be able to trade for him a month into the season and get him for half the price you would have on draft day. If not, people have won their leagues drafting a quarterback below Peyton Manning before, too.
Tim Tebow - Don't do it. Don't be the dunce who drafts Tim Tebow too high. Somebody in your league is going to do it. They'll point to his big Week 17 against the Chargers and say Tebow is going to be a fantasy star. Heck, they might be right, but we're playing the odds here. When most of the NFL personnel people find something wrong with your game, it's a pretty good bet they're right. Don't do something stupid to try to prove everybody wrong.
Mark Sanchez - Mark Sanchez is the guy who has a few big games every year, but is a liability most weeks. The Jets have some weapons and Sanchez is coming into his third year, so I can see why people would think this is his year. But there's a point where NFL football and fantasy football diverge. Troy Aikman was one of those points, and I think Mark Sanchez might turn out to be one of them, too. Being on a good team and becoming famous for winning is not the same as having to carry your team, even if you have a few solid weapons. The Jets are built on defense and a good running games and, if you assume both those things are going to be in place in 2011, Mark Sanchez is going to have a ceiling in production. You'll find worse players to have as a backup quarterback, especially if Sanchez has a good bye week matchup. But you'll have too many weeks where the New York Jets run the ball and control the clock for Sanchez to be a fantasy football starter.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers for 2011
Colt McCoy - I usually have a rule that I never depend on a Cleveland Browns player in fantasy football. That rule has served me well over the years, even when it's caused me to miss the bus on an occasional (very occasional) standout like Peyton Hillis in 2010. I've even broken the rule once or twice over the years, such as when I had some injuries, got desperate, and started Jerome Harrison in the playoffs a couple of guys (which paid off). Drafting Colt McCoy as a backup quarterback might be another such exception. The Browns have been awful on offense the last few seasons, despite having one of the best young offensive lines in the game. They were awful again most of the year last year, despite Hillis's heroics. But what made me take notice was when Colt McCoy got the start midway through the season and promptly defeated the New England Patriot and New Orleans Saints two weeks in a row. Look it up, if you don't believe me. Had McCoy not gotten injured soon after, he might have been one of the big stories of 2010. As we enter the 2011 season, Colt McCoy has had a year to absorb the offense and Mike Holmgren has added some more receiving talent around McCoy. With the young o-line getting better and Peyton Hillis taking pressure off the young QB, Colt McCoy could turn into a decent backup with surprising upside. Keep in mind that one of the things which made Colt McCoy so effective at the University of Texas was his ability to run with the ball when a play broke down. While I'm sure the coaches will try to coach that out of McCoy quickly, he should be able to chip in with a few points running the ball along the way.
Donovan McNabb - Donovan McNabb was awful with the Washington Redskins last year, so awful that the Skins actually did the unthinkable and benched their starter for Rex Grossman. But you have to keep in mind this is Mike Shanahan we're talking about, and Skeletor likes to make a point. Don't assume they Skins actually thought Grossman was better than McNabb, whose fantasy prospects have hit the ditch in the 18 months since he's left the Philadelphia Eagles. Also keep in mind the Redskins are almost always a disaster. The situation in Minnesota, where McNabb was traded for a 6th rounder or two, is much better. McNabb is going to be protected from the pass rush like never before, because the defense is going to focus on Adrian Peterson on 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd down sometimes. McNabb should have Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe as targets, and there's an outside chance he'll have Sidney Rice back. After the debacle of last year, the Vikes should be hungry and ready to do some damage again.
Matt Hasselbeck - Matt Hasselbeck is another forgotten veteran who's in a better situation than he was a year ago. Hasselbeck became the victim of a new regime in Seattle last year, even though he's been as much of a victim of age and injury in recent years. But Hasselbeck started off the season 4-2 last year with the Seahawks, with wins over the Bears and Chargers. Injuries caused him to miss much of the much talked-about losing streak, but he threw 4 touchdowns in the 'Hawks big playoff upset of the defending champion New Orleans Saints. Matt Hasselbeck, when healthy, still has something left. Hasselbeck will have emerging talents Kenny Britt and Jared Cook for targets, and Chris Johnson is light-years better than anyone lining up behind Hasselbeck in Seattle these last few years. Like McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck shouldn't be the 1st quarterback you select, and he shouldn't be a top priority as a 2nd quarterback. But at a point in the draft, if you don't have a backup, Matt Hasselbeck makes a lot of sense.
Kevin Kolb - Kevin Kolb is one of the wild cards entering the 2011 fantasy football season. Either he's going to be the starting quarterback for a team like the Arizona Cardinals, or he's going to be a highly paid backup behind Michael Vick. If Kolb is traded to the Cardinals like many expect him to be, he's going to team up with Larry Fitzgerald. With the NFL lockout coming to a close, Kolb and Fitzgerald met to practice with one another in a clear audition for the Cards' QB role. If Kolb goes west, he should be a high upside backup quarterback. He might not be Kurt Warner, but Kolb is also no Max Hall or John Skelton (in a good way). A year ago, Kevin Kolb was a highly-touted fantasy quarterback. Just because Michael Vick did special things in Phillie does not mean Kevin Kolb sucks. Give him a fresh start and he might be actually become a factor.
Dynasty League Fantasy Football Quarterbacks in 2011
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers - It looks like Alex Smith led the San Francisco 49ers player practices in the lockout and has established himself as the clear opening-day starter--for now. But Alex Smith has had 5 full NFL seasons to show the Niners he's worth a darn and Smith has just never really clicked. Michael Crabtree and even Vernon Davis (to a lesser degree) regressed last year with Alex Smith at QB. Meanwhile, Colin Kaepernick is said to have shown a much stronger arm in offseason practices than he was credited with, even knocking one Forty-Niners receiver off his feet with one ball. Alex Smith is the present in the Bay Area, but Colin Kaepernick is the future, so he's my favorite QB keeper, if you have the space to stash him in 2011.
Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans - Jake Locker was another QB drafted to be the franchise. Once again, Matt Hasselbeck is the present, but everyone assumes Jake Locker is going to be the man in 2012 and beyond. A year ago, Locker was a candidate for the #1 overall pick, but a disappointing senior season in college meant he dropped several spots in the draft. But he has the physical tools to be the QB Vince Young never could be in Tennessee.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals quarterbacks are cursed to deal with Mike Brown. In the past 20 seasons, the Bengals have 2 winning seasons, and most of the blame can be targeted as the Bengals ridiculous owner and general manager. Let's face it: Mike Brown is the Bengals GM only because his father was Paul Brown. Mike Brown is the Prince Joffre of the NFL. So Andy Dalton is going to have to overcome that. All that being said, Dalton has some targets in Cincinnati and the Bengals are likely to give him the reins early on. The kid seems to be a winner, though in the past, the Bengals have turned other habitual winners into, well...Bengals. But Andy Dalton is worth a flier late in a fantasy keeper draft, because poor ole Carson Palmer had a few good seasons dealing with the NFL's worst dynastic heir.
This article about fantasy football quarterbacks was posted July 28, 2011.