2011 NFL Fantasy Football Projections
Every year, fantasy magazines fill out 50 to 100 pages full of fantasy football projections. These publications print in black-and-white the number of yards and touchdowns a running back is going to have, going so far as to project the number of carries, receptions, and receiving yards they'll have. Quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends get the same treatment, with the projected numbers getting down to single-digits. So you might see Roddy White is projected to have 95 receptions for 1,455 yards and 9 touchdowns and it all looks quite official.
But do those projected totals actually mean anything? Do each of the prognosticators have some formula, program, or software that lets them predict fantasy stats, or do they eyeball the fantasy player and assign arbitrary numbers to them, as I just did? My questions are serious ones, because it's important to how seriously a fantasy owner takes those numbers.
Las Vegas oddsmakers have formulas which let them factor in home field advantage, weather conditions, and injuries to key stars. In fact, big time oddsmakers include anything they can get data on when deciding on a line, so much so that you'll see them hold off on setting a line until certain up-in-the-air factors are clarified (such as injury reports coming out). But even Vegas isn't actually trying to set what they think will be the final score. Oddsmakers are trying to predict what the betting public is thinking, so they can get half the people to bet one way and half the other way. So even the most genius Vegas gamblers don't actually project stats the way fantasy football mags do.
How to Project Fantasy Football Players
I've read fantasy football books which tell players how to make their own draft list based on projections. The next step is to take the projections, find where the performance tiers are at each position, then separate these positions into tiered lists. When a tier starts to get empty, that's when you know to draft the highest value players. It's great advice, but only if you can predict with some degree of accuracy every player on every tier. In the "real world" of fantasy football, though, that's impossible. I've still yet to find someone who can convince me they can project fantasy football numbers accurately, and if you disagree with me, tell me whether you had Arian Foster projected in the Top 5, or even Top 10, last year.
How Most People Project Fantasy Numbers
I'll tell you how most of the owners in your league are making projections, if they aren't going by a list somewhere. To properly follow this process, you'll need to find a trusted fantasy football website with accurate stats for last years. Hopefully, you'll find one for your scoring system. Some fantasy football league management websites offer this information, perhaps even your league's final results from last year. Others don't offer this service. My advice is to only use fantasy sites that allow you to view past seasons for years and years to come. I digress, so let's get to the fantasy football projection tips.
In 2011, find accurate final statistics for 2010 according to the exact scoring system your league uses. No other stats will be accurate enough.
Make a list of the players, along with short notes on their final fantasy points. Leave room for marks to be made.
Mark beside each player whether their numbers should increase, decrease, or stay the same. Use age, injury news, free agent additions, losses in free agency to their offensive unit, and any other factors you might find relevant.
Once you have each player marked, decide how many yards, touchdowns, receptions, carries, interceptions thrown, and fumbles lost each player is likely to have in 2011. Be specific.
Re-rank the players according to these new stats. Remember to add in rookies and other new additions that might not have been factors last year, due to injury, suspensions, or prison time. When making these projections, use a combination of that player's last game experience (college usually), their measurables, and the results of their counterpart on the team last year. For instance, if you want to project Mark Ingram's contribution to the Saints, learn what Christopher Ivory and company did rushing the ball in the Saints Offense, then project whether you think Mark Ingram improves or weakens the Saints' running game, or whether it stays about the same.
Review strength of schedule, key free agent additions and subtractions, and important retirements to your player's offensive unit to make certain you aren't missing something. Move your player accordingly, once all stats (mentioned above) have been factored in.
Build separate lists of quarterbacks, running back, wide receivers,
tight ends, field goal kickers, team defense, and even IDP players if
your league uses these players.
Once you have the list, look at the big drop-offs between certain
sections of the players at each position. When you find a large gulf,
draw a line and make this your newest value plateau.
Fantasy Football Projection Lists
Now you have your fantasy football projections. These become your cheat sheets at the next draft. I tend to make one of these a year for my main league, then make notes accordingly when events happen (like trades and injuries). Use a yellow highlighter the first draft you use this list for. Then use a pencil to mark out the players in the second and subsequent drafts.
One good set of projections help you get as accurate as possible in predicting the outcome of the season, though you should understand that these projections immediately change after Week 1 of the season and (to a lesser extent) all other weeks of the season. Fantasy football is a game of information, and each new week provides a whole new wealth of information. To paraphrase Moltke the Elder, "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy". I'm sure Moltke would have said the same about fantasy football projections.