Fantasy Football Kickers 2011
by John Clifton
Unless you play in a fantasy football league with exotic scoring rules, fantasy football kickers are about all the same. Even if you play in a league which places heavy emphasis on kicking stats (I've seen them), the place kicker position is so inconsistent and volatile from one year to the next that it doesn't pay to allocate mid-to-high picks on kickers. Don't be the dolt who drafts a kicker while your opponents are adding quality #2 wide receivers and talented running back handcuffs. You're just handing your opponents a built-in advantage if you do.
Here's
why: the turnover of the top 10 fantasy football kickers from one year
to the next is consistently around 70% to 80%, which is the highest of
any position in fantasy football. Just because a kicker was dominant
last year, it doesn't mean he's going to have the same numbers this
year. You can almost say that last year's best kicker is almost certain
to fall out of the Top Ten this year. The fact is, it's not just about
him. So much of his production is based on the offense who gets the ball
down the field for him. If they are awful, they never get across the
50-yard line and never take shots at field goals. If they're too good,
they score nothing but extra points and he's not much better in most
scoring formats. When you factor in injuries, coaching changes, changes
to the 11 starters, and strength of schedule, there are just too many
factors to compute.
Even the relative strength of his team's defense from last year to this one can affect his stats, because if you're behind by 7 or more late in games, teams are less likely to kick field goals to play catch-up. All of this means you can't predict how a fantasy kicker is going to do, so you shouldn't try. Make out a list with 2 to 3 plateaus on it. Try to draft a kicker when a plateau starts to get empty. If you get near the end of the list of "top tier kickers" and you still have people at other positions you think have big upside, ignore the kicker position. Those second tier PKs are likely to be just as good.
That being said, I wanted to go over some 2011 fantasy football kicker information. So far, you won't find a lot of turnover, which might change when free agency starts to sort itself out. For those who've forgotten since the end of last season, let me add some notes and thoughts on the current crop of ff kickers.
Fantasy Football Field Goal Kicker Changes for 2011
So far, you won't find too many changes at the place kicker position in 2011. Once camps get going and teams start searching for ways to cut salary, you might see players get cut and teams go with less established options. For now, here's one sure new starter on a playoff team and a number of the other more recent changes at the kicker positions (or updates of older PK options).
Alex Henery, Philadelphia Eagles - For the first time since 2000, the Philadelphia Eagles have a new field goal kicker. Alex Henery holds the NCAA record for highest careere accuracy at 89.2%, and Bobby April (Eagles Special Teams Coach) is projecting Henery to lead the Eagles in scoring for the next "10 to 15 years". David Akers may have been the best fantasy kickers over the last decade, so Alex Henery is a fantasy sleeper pick among kickers in 2011.
Billy Cundiff, Baltimore Ravens - Billy Cundiff took over full time for Matt Stover and is now the kicker on one of the best, most-consistent 2nd-tier offenses in the NFL. The Ravens are always in games and tend to move the ball consistently, but they aren't so overpowering that they only score touchdowns. Billy Cundiff, despite being quite unsteady in his early days with the Cowboys, is now a solid fantasy option.
Connor Barth, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Connor Barth was one of those no-name kickers that started being picked up at some point in the year last year, and ended up having some nice games in 2011. With young offensive stars like Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LaGarrette Blount, expect the Bucs offensive numbers only to rise. Also, the Buccaneers have the lowest payroll right now (around $59 million), but according to the new collective bargaining agreement, they're payroll has to be near $118 million for 2011 (salary floor). That means the Bucs will be the most active team in free agency money-wise, whether they want to be or not. If they can get that talent on the same page, Tampa Bay can do some real damage in '11. Even if it's a bit of a mess, their offense should be good enough to produce field goals.
David Buehler, Dallas Cowboys - The Dallas Cowboys just cut Kris Brown for salary cap purposes, so it looks like David Buehler gets one more shot to be the Dallas Cowboys' field goal kicker. Dallas fans might roll their eyes, but Buehler has a strong leg and kicks for one of the league's most talented offenses. That should make him a fantasy factor. If your league takes off points for missed field goals, avoid David Buehler like the plague.
Ryan Succop, Kansas City Chiefs - Ryan Succop had his moments in 2010, but the Chiefs also had their games where they were absolutely awful on offense. Given the Chiefs' overall offensive inconsistency, Succop is only an average fantasy kicker, but is a solid bye week replacement.
Neil Rackers, Houston Texans - Neil Rackers took over for Kris Brown last year. That didn't make Rackers the fantasy force he was at times in Arizona, and it didn't make him the force Kris Brown has been in recent fantasy seasons. You can blame one key factor: Arian Foster. When a running back is leading the league in touchdown carries, he's taking a lot of production away from the field goal kicker. The Texans hadn't had a running game like that since the Domenic Davis era (if ever), so Rackers numbers suffered. They call them career years for a reason, though, so expect Neil Rackers to be a better fantasy option in 2011.
Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins - Two years ago, Dan Carpenter was as good of a fantasy football kicker as there was. Last year, Carpenter had his worst statistical year in his three-year NFL career. Due to injuries and organizational chaos, the Dolphins Offense was pretty bad through big stretches of '10, so not all of that is Dan Carpenter's fault. Expect to see a little more stability in 2011 and Carpenter's numbers to climb once more.
Nick Folk, New York Jets - In certain games last year, Nick Folk was dominant. In other games, the Jets scored only touchdowns. While that happens with most fantasy kickers, the Jets seemed to be more feast-or-famine than most NFL teams last year. That may continue into 2011. But one thing you can expect with the Jets is they'll be in every ballgame this season. With Ks on bad teams, you'll see a team stop kicking field goals at a point, because they need 7 points to catch up. That shouldn't happen to Rex Ryan's team much, so Nick Folk should be a factor all 16 games--if Mark Sanchez becomes a little more consistent.
Top 5 Fantasy Football Kickers 2011
Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers - The kicker on the Superbowl champion is certain to have some value in a fantasy football draft. The problem with the kicker on the league's best offense is he's often only kicking extra points. If Aaron Rodgers is too unstoppable, Mason Crosby's numbers will suffer. Luckily, the NFL has a way of slowing down the Superbowl champions, however unbeatable they seem at the end of the previous season, so if Aaron Rodgers and company are just a little off their pace of 2010, Mason Crosby should be a top fantasy kicker.
Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers - Nate Kaeding is about the safest field goal kicker in fantasy football. The San Diego Chargers have a perennially good offense. The Bolts play in sunny San Diego. Nate Kaeding has been remarkably consistent. None of that should change in 2010. Also, you might get Kaeding a little cheaper than most years, since an injury (3 missed games) limited his numbers somewhat. Kaeding was good when he was in there, as always.
Rob Bironas, Tennesee Titans - Rob Bironas seems ageless. The Titans Offense is a good set-up for fantasy place kicker, with an offense that should move the ball, but not score touchdowns at such a rate that their kicker is marginal. With Matt Hasselbeck as the starter in 2011, you don't have to worry that a Chris Johnson holdout and a rookie QB would completely shut down the Titans offense--a real possibility before Hasselbeck signed.
Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons - I'm convinced Michael Turner is due for a rapid decline at age 29, which means more Falcons drives should stall this year. Matt Bryant was an average fantasy football kicker in 2010, but the fortunes of PKs change year-to-year in fantasy football and Bryant seems to be in a good situation--a kicker on one of the league's better offenses kicking in a dome. Garrett Hartley also falls into this category.
Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders - Led the league in field goals made in 2010. The Raiders Offense is just good enough to get into field goal range, which makes Seabass about as solid of a fantasy play as any out there.
This article about fantasy football kickers was posted July 28, 2011.