Fantasy Football Free Agents and Free Agency
by John Clifton
With the crazier NFL free agency period in history set to begin in a matter of days, it got me thinking about fantasy football free agency. NFL free agents and fantasy football free agents don't have a lot in common, except each is a professional ball player without a team at the moment. I've seen studies where far fewer big name and big salary NFL free agents make an impact than you'd think, so the NFL free agency period is sometimes overblown--reasonable, since it usually happens in the football wasteland known as March. Owners new to fantasy football would make a huge mistake to ignore the fantasy football waiver wire, though.
The Fantasy Football Waiver Wire
Once the draft is done, the fantasy football waiver wire is the best way to build your team's talent pool and overall depth. Teams who stay active in their league's free agency build up a steady and incremental advantage over their less-active rivals over the course of fantasy football season. Fantasy owners should be active early and often in their free agency system, especially when your league allows unlimited transactions in a year and your league has deep rosters. Here's what to look for in free agency throughout your fantasy football season.
Fantasy Football Free Agency Week 1
When I talk about week one of free agency, I mean the waiver wire period between NFL Week 1 and NFL Week 2. One game has been played, which isn't a lot to go on. The NFL teams who won are convinced they're winning the Superbowl, while the teams who lost are already panicking. That's often the way it is with fantasy football teams after Week 1 of their seasons, too. Now's not the time to panic, but now is not the time to automatically stand pat.
If you drafted a star player high and he has a bad week to start the season, be patient. Bad weeks happen. In fact, any player you drafted in the top half of your draft has the talent to automatically keep. I would say most players drafted in the top 75% of your draft probably deserve a second look, unless a season-ending injury or a benching has taken place. Even then, a second receiver being moved to #3 is usually worth a second look at the situation, if the offense is high-powered or the situation is still fluid. But if you're in a deep league where you draft 18 to 20 players onto your team (in a 12-team league), some of those players in the last few rounds may not be worth keeping, if they don't look to be in their team's immediate plans.
Once again, use your judgment. If you had a hunch about a player and he didn't immediately hit the field in week one, you're breaking from draft strategy to cut him now. But if you have a player you took a flier on in the draft, or a second field goal kicker, or a second defense who stunk it up Week 1, you might be able to fit a waiver wire pickup onto your roster and improve your team.
Adding Players off One Week
You might think that anyone who wasn't drafted can't have that much value after only one week. But look at it this way: you now have more information to go on than you did on draft day. Suddenly, a wide receiver who was listed as a 3rd receiver suddenly gets the start as the #2 receiver and looks to have a rapport with the quarterback--and big play ability. The little-known running back got in the ballgame because of a key injury and suddenly looked quick, decisive, and hungry. These are things to look for.
Avoid Week 1 Overreactions
One thing to avoid is overreactions on one game's performance. Every year, there's one owner in one of my leagues who picks up 2 or 3 players off their Week 1 performance. Most of the time, this is a one-week aberration. So if a tight end get 2 receptions for 14 yards and 2 touchdowns, that probably means he'll probably get 14 yards and no TDs next week. The 3rd or 4th receiver who caught one pass for 60 yards and a touchdown is probably not going to be a steady producer. In all cases, read the buzz coming out of the local media for that team to see if this is considered a fluke, or a sign of a player who's won the coaches' trust and therefore more playing time.
Let me reiterate: don't be impressed with a single touchdown. Be more impressed by the receiver who gets 6 receptions for 84 years and not touchdowns than the guy who made one play happen, because the receiver with more receptions is likely to be a more integral part of the offense moving ahead.
Also, look at what is dropped in free agency. You'll occasionally see another owner panic and drop a talented player based on Week 1. When that player is a better bench option than what you have, drop and add. If you can't pick up dropped players until the next week, make a note, see what that player does in Game 2, and be ready to pounce.
Fantasy Football Free Agency - Month One
As the results come in over the first month of the season, you'll see a glut of action on your league's waiver wire. Weeks two and three of your league's free agency are often the most important ones of the season. This is where trends begin to emerge and the one-week flukes begin to fade back into the background. At this point, a handful of legitimate starters begin to emerge that were on no one's radar screen at the start of the season, especially at the wide receiver position.
One reason I still advise fantasy football owners to focus on adding depth at running back in their drafts is that good wide receivers tend to be available on the waiver wire in the first month of a fantasy season, while running backs are more scarce. You can fill holes at the receiver position easier than any other position through the waiver wire, but only if you're aggressive.
Don't Worry About Mistakes
If you make a few mistakes, don't worry. Just dump the mistake and keep turning over your roster. The top fantasy football owners are constantly trying to improve the bottom half of their rosters through free agency every week of the season. Sometimes, a player you add to the bottom of your roster suddenly turns into a solid starting option. Most of the time, they remain bench fodder. But if you can make incremental improvements throughout the season, it gives you more options when it comes to starting lineups and trade discussions.
When turning over your roster, you'll occasionally take a step backward, but do what it takes to start making forward strides again. Read the injury updates and latest news to make sure you aren't cutting valuable players, or at least increase the likelihood you aren't cutting your best bench talent. When you get all the information available, you can improve a mediocre team into a competitive team and a good team into a great team. Don't give up, because anyone who scratches their way into the playoffs has a chance to get got and win the league title.
Remember: you don't have to have the best team all season, you just have to have the best team at the end of the season. Adding players through fantasy football free agency is an integral part of building towards the playoffs.
Don't Wait Until It's Too Late
I have a friend who waits to get involved in free agency until a month or six weeks has passed. He won't pay much attention until he's about 1-3 or 0-4, then suddenly want to know why his team isn't doing that well. Besides saying he should have drafted better, the only positive advice I can give is to get more involved in free agency (or have been involved the last month). So this team owner becomes much more active for a week or two, but by then, it's often too late. While new free agent options do become possible due to injuries as the season goes along, the truly pivotal free agent additions often are the players who were passed over in the preseason and who break out in the first few weeks of the new year. Don't ignore free agency for the first few weeks of the season, then try to make up for it when it's already over. That would be like sitting out the first 5 rounds of the fantasy football draft, then try to make up for your lack of initiative by drafting double in the 6th through 10th rounds.
Certain weeks are better than others throughout a season. Sometimes it's better to sit on the players you have than to add free agents just for the sake of change. And you'll have times when the best waiver wire pickup of the season only gets his chance late in the season (see Ryan Torain). But every single week of the season, reevaluate your roster and decide whether you can improve it somehow.
Injuries Are Opportunities
When planning ahead for free agency every week, take a look at the latest injury report. Injuries can destroy your fantasy season, but injuries are also opportunities to improve your roster. Most of the time, the guy on the bench isn't as good as the starter. But occasionally, a team had a hidden gem that just didn't show his true stuff in practice. When he gets his chance, he becomes a fantasy football standout.
Running back is a particularly volatile position, because RBs get hit more often than any other skill position. As the season wears on, new runners occasionally become available in free agency. This won't happen too often, so be prepared to jump on it when it does. Much of the time, all potential handcuff runners are already on a fantasy roster. But coaches get more canny each NFL season, so occasionally, you'll have a 3rd stringer who is seen as the natural replacement starter. For instance, if the 2nd back is more of a third down type, or if the team doesn't want to burden the third down RB with additional duties (he might be a kick returner already), then when an injury happens, you suddenly have a third stringer getting the carries.
The scenario I'm talking about happened last year in the San Diego Chargers' running back situation. The team wanted to start #1 draft pick Ryan Mathews as their #1 running back, and everyone assumed veteran Darren Sproles would be the natural starter if Mathews got injured. But when Mathews got hurt (and stayed hurt much of the season), fullback Mike Tolbert suddenly got the bulk of the carries. If you had drafted Ryan Mathews and handcuffed him to Darren Sproles, you got a nasty surprise when Tolbert was getting most of the production throughout much of the season. That surprise got really nasty if you slept in free agency and someone else picked up Tolbert before you. But for everyone else in your league, Mike Tolbert was an opportunity to make a key addition.
The Fantasy Football Waiver Wire - Late in the Season
I'm not saying you cheer for injuries--it's only a game. But injuries are a reality in the NFL, so when they happen, you want to be the one to add to the strength of your team with a key free agent addition. If you don't, your rivals will. It's only a game, but fantasy football is all about participation and talent acquisition, so you have to use all the tools at your disposal. Once you get past the first 4-6 weeks of your fantasy football season, your weekly waiver wire decisions are going to become more and more about monitoring the NFL injury report every week and see if you can keep building up your talent base. Remember, injuries happen to everyone, so if you stand pat when you could be improving the franchise, when the injury bug hits your team, you'll be without viable starter options.